Rainbow Lesson #12:
Declarer Play
Preamble
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Consistent with Ward Rule #2 ("Behave politely,
bid obnoxiously!"), Declarer's first task is to thank
dummy for tabling hir hand. Try to refrain from
expressing any disappointment, since this may serve
to "tip your hand" and make matters worse. It would
NOT be a good time to ask: "Partner, where is the hand
you held during the auction?" 
______
After thanking Partner and reminding ourselves
to keep a straight "poker" face, our third task is
to count our tricks.
| Dummy |
 Ax |
 AK10x |
 AKOJ10 |
 KJ |
Declarer |
Q |
9876 |
8653 |
10764 |
______
In 3NT you have eight certain tricks here.
______
Your next task is the define your goal your goal or
"target". At IMPs or Rubber bridge this usually involves
making your contract. Only if you are playing in a
sacrifice does your target change to that of holding
the damage down to an amount commensurate with
whatever you are sacrificing against. For example,
if they can make 4 for 620, while you toil in 4
doubled, you will want to lose no more than -500.
______
At MatchPoints, your target is not quite so
clear. Basically, you must aim to take enough
tricks to beat the scores attained by others
holding your cards. If, for example, you are
in 2 and notice that 1NT is a plausible contract
that will make 8 tricks for 120, you will need
to make ten tricks for +130 in order to beat the
many "no trumpers".
Counting
______
Your first task after thanking partner
for the dummy is to count your tricks. Start
with your certain tricks. Then start planning
how you may be able to improve on this total.
______
As the play proceeds, count your
opponents' cards in each suit. This mental
exercise requires practice, but if you get into
the habit of doing it on every hand, your "card
sense" will improve...and will come in very
handy in many endings. Watch your opponents'
signals carefully for any clues that they may
render. Always make careful note of their
signalling methods, and ask questions wherever
appropriate.
______
Bear in mind the bidding. If an
opponent shows great length in one suit (as
with, say, a weak 2-bid) chances are that this
player's Partner will have length in any other
suit. Also keep in mind the fact that any
non-preemptive bid by any opponent tends to
increase that players chances of holding any
outstanding honour. In such cases, then,
count that opponent's points as they appear.
You can often locate an opponent's HCPs by
inferring that they "need" this card in order
to have enough for their bid.
Planning
______
Planning is integral to increasing your number
of certain tricks towards your target. Vital to this
process is a grounding in the odds of various plans
working. Barring any bidding by the opponents, a
finesse is a 50% chance. The chance of finding two
cards favourably placed is (50% x 50% =) 25%.
______
Suits tend to break "off-center". If
there are six outstanding cards in a suit,
then, the odds are (about 2-1) in favour of
a 4-2 split. About 36% of the time it will
break 3-3, with 5-1 and 6-0 breaks taking up
less than 2% between them.
______
With five cards outstanding, the odds
favour a 3-2 split about 2-1 over a 4-1 break.
"Hawaii" (i.e. 5-0) splits are rare (1%), unless
you happen to my partner and we are in a critical
slam--whereupon the odds zoom up to 100%. 
______
With 4 cards outstanding, the percentages
favour a 3-1 (50%) over a 2-2 split (40%), with
a 4-0 break occurring 10% of the time.
______
3 outstanding cards will split 2-1
about 2/3 of the time, with a 3-0 break occurring
once in three times.
______
These simple percentages will prove
invaluable in your planning. If, for example,
you must choose between hinging your target on
either a 3-3 split (36%) or a finesse (50%),
take the hook! ("hook" means "finesse").
Questions
| #1 |
| Dummy |
AKQ92 |
Declarer |
653 |
In 3NT you see that Dummy
has AKQ92 and nothing else.
Needing only four Club tricks to make our contract, how do you play this suit...
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