Once we have some idea of how many High Card Points
("HCPs") that our partner has we can make a reasonable
estimate as to how many "dream" cards (i.e. cover cards
of our choice, "perfect", "ideal", "chosen", "golden" or
"planted" cards) that they will provide us. We accomplish
this by dividing the number of HCPs that Partner has
suggested by FOUR. For example:
HCPs Promised | Rounded to | Dream Cards
| |
6-9 HCPs | 8 | 2
12-14 HCPs | 12 | 3
15-17 HCPs | 16 | 4
20-21 HCPs | 20 | 5
In this way, if Partner raises our opening suit
bid to the 2 level, as with 1H:2H, we might expect
approximately 8 HCPs, translating to TWO "ideal" cards.
If Partner opens 1-of-a-suit and makes a minimum rebid,
we might play them for 13-14 POINTS, but SOME of those
might be DISTRIBUTIONAL points. Hence, we would assume
12 HCPs, and expect THREE such "chosen" cards in
Opener's hand. Similarly, a 1NT Opener should provide
four such "perfect" cards; a 2NT Opener, five.
Okay, so now what do we DO with this information?
Easy. You mentally place the given number of "planted"
cards into Partner's hand. Which ones? Whichever ones
you want! Then count your losers according to the
Fractional Loser Count (where we assume that PARTNER is
always on lead). Hence:
a) No 4th or longer card in a suit is a loser
b) Any small card is a loser.
c) Kx is one-and-a-half losers, since the odds of
the Ace onside is 50-50.
d) Qxx is 2-and-3/4 losers, since the odds of
the AK onside is only 25%.
Of course, if the bidding suggests that Partner
will be short in a suit, we would not count those
losers. For example, H-xxx is at most ONE loser if
the oppponents bid Hearts vigourously, thereby
showing 9+ card length there, marking our Partner
for a singleton or void in Hearts.
Consider these example hands:
1. S- AQ10xx H- KQx D- Axx C- Qx
After 1S:2S, should we bid 4S? Give Partner
two "golden" cards and find out! S-K and
H-Ace? That leaves us with 4 minor suit
losers. S-King and C-Ace? A club loser,
2 Diamonds and 1 or 2 Heart losers. Hence,
we should NOT EVEN INVITE game here!
2. S- Kxx H- AKxxx D- AKJ10 C- x
While we may be somewhat deficient in POINTS
for 6H after 1H:3H (a limit raise, 10-12),
we can put S-AQ and H-Queen into Partner's
hand and then hope for Diamonds to behave.
Hence, at IMPs we might try cuebidding 3S
here and hope that Partner CANNOT cuebid 4C.
We need Partner to have values OUTSIDE Clubs.
3. S- AKx H- AQ D- AKJ10xxx C- x
After 2C:2NT (7-9 flat), virtually any two
useful cards will allow 6D to have a good
chance: S-Queen, H-King and C-Ace being
the three we'd MOST like to see. If Partner
has 3-5 Diamonds, we will likely not NEED the
trump Queen. Bid 6D at IMPs, at least.
Practice using the Four Point Principle on
every hand and watch your bidding improve!
